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  2017 coal, mining, steel market volatility will increase

This year, steel prices experienced a rise in the first quarter, the second quarter fell in the third quarter, the slight increase in shocks, entered the fourth quarter after the shock rise. The price of metallurgical coal rose steadily from May to April, and rose steeply in May to August. After stepping into the fourth quarter, the price of metallurgical coal rose rapidly. Compared with the beginning of this year, the price of metallurgical coal rose by 75% Than the overall price of about 800 yuan / ton, or about 230%; iron ore prices in January ~ April shock rise in May to October shocks, accelerated after October, compared with the beginning of this year, the overall price of about Up 35 US dollars / ton, or about 87%. Coal, steel overall profitability has improved. According to the current price of finished raw materials, steel prices have a small amount of profit, the coal industry in good condition.

Excess funds will flood the futures market to guard against extreme prices

Next year, the domestic economy is expected to stabilize, monetary policy shift to sound, focusing on inhibiting asset bubbles and guard against financial risks. Therefore, the market game may evolve into a policy game, black goods market volatility will increase. On the other hand, the pressure of RMB devaluation is increasing. On the domestic side, the supply side structural reform is accelerating progressively. From the surrounding environment, the demand for infrastructure construction in Asia has great potential. The upgrading of infrastructure in emerging economies and developed economies in Europe and the United States will Bring more opportunities, the black series of product price increases may be the logic of the supply side of the boost will evolve into demand-driven consumer.

At the same time, Trump elected president of the United States after the uncertainty, the EU member states bankruptcy and other factors, or will lead to global debt or local financial crisis, the demand side may be sluggish, thus affecting commodity prices. In addition, the real estate is the largest black product end-demand side, real estate speculation was suppressed, is expected to "all the way along" the construction of investment, long cycle, it is difficult to short-term real estate market to replace and replace the sharp demand changes. Domestic and social surplus liquidity will likely flow into the futures market, while speculation in the high spot market, the need to prevent the raw material market, the stage of extreme prices.

Black products, especially coal, the second half of this year, a larger price increase, gathered a certain risk. However, coking coal has become a relatively scarce resource, coupled with the coal supply side structural reform efforts, especially after the elimination of market-oriented in recent years, the state-owned coal enterprises to improve the balance sheet, expansion will and capacity is not strong, private endangered Bankruptcy enterprises are difficult to apply for bank loans, capacity can not be quickly restored, the supply is difficult to substantially increase the coking coal supply and demand is expected to be relatively balanced. At present, the iron and steel enterprises operating conditions can not be optimistic. With the environmental protection and production capacity to continue to push forward, steel supply is difficult to continue to effectively increase as this year, iron and steel enterprises operating conditions are expected to show a certain turn for the better. At the same time, with some domestic mining enterprises bankruptcy and operational difficulties, the four mines continue to strengthen the pricing power, concentration further enhanced, especially this year, coal, coke prices rose too much, the domestic steel enterprises to reduce the overall fuel ratio, The use of high-grade iron ore, resulting in the current high-grade iron ore shortage. While the four mines to high grade ore majority, therefore, although the foreign mine production is still high, but the four mines will be shipped through the rhythm to control the price intention.

2017, for the smooth operation

In the coking coal sector, the first half of 2017 is expected in the coking coal prices in the 1000 yuan / ton ~ 1300 yuan / ton range bound in the second half is expected to 1,100 yuan / ton ~ 1,400 yuan / ton range, price center 1,300 yuan / ton , The extreme market 1700 yuan / ton.

In iron ore, iron ore prices in 2017 is expected to 55 US dollars / ton ~ 75 US dollars / ton range, the price center for the 65 US dollars / ton, extreme prices may reach 80 US dollars / ton to 100 US dollars / ton.

In terms of rebar, the rebar price in 2017 is expected to be around RMB 2,700 / tonne, RMB 3,400 / tonne and RMB 3,400 / tonne, respectively. The extreme price may reach RMB 4,300 / ton.

Therefore, the industry suggested that the procurement of iron and steel enterprises, to maintain more than 10 days of coal stocks, to maintain more than 25 days of iron ore stocks; procurement departments to scientific judgments market, in the low-cost range of parabolic grab seize market opportunities And revenue, active procurement efficiency; steel sales departments should be good at seizing high-performance orders, to maintain production stability. Conditional and basic units can be appropriately involved in hedging, but to maintain a smooth operation, beware of market risk.

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